The Coalition’s proposed migration cuts: what they could mean for your visa

On 6 October 2026 Opposition Leader Angus Taylor released the Coalition’s migration plan, which the Liberal Party calls “the largest cut to immigration in Australian history”. It combines lower overall numbers with fewer temporary visas and fewer ways to move from one visa to another while in Australia. The Government and some business groups criticised it on the day, as reported by Guardian Australia.

If you hold a visa or are planning one, the practical answer is that nothing changes today. Here is what was announced, and how each part would land if it were implemented.

The headline numbers

The plan sets a path for net overseas migration (NOM) - broadly, people arriving to live in Australia for 12 months or more, minus those leaving:

For context, the ABS puts NOM at 292,100 in the year to 31 March 2026, and the Government’s Budget forecasts are 245,000 for 2026–27 and 225,000 for 2027–28.

• About 650,000 fewer temporary visa holders over four years, from 1,766,200 in 2025–26 on the party’s “core” measure, which excludes visitors and New Zealanders.
• The permanent Migration Program stays at 185,000 places a year - the same planning level the Government has set for 2026–27.
• The humanitarian intake halves to 10,000 places a year. Home Affairs lists 20,000 places for 2025–26.

What it could mean, visa by visa

Students and graduates

• Temporary Graduate (subclass 485) visas would be abolished. Post-study visas would remain only for PhD students, students in health or education, and students at regional universities. The party’s own table has Temporary Graduate holders falling from 271,200 to 10,000 by 2031–32.
• Most students could not bring family members. This goes further than the Government’s restriction, which has been law since 2 October 2026 - see student visa applications from 2 October 2026.
• International student commencements would be cut to 240,000 a year, which the party says is 55,000 below the current setting.
• Each student visa would be linked to the enrolling institution, and Home Affairs would be tasked with finding students working more hours than their visa allows.

Skilled and employer-sponsored

• The permanent program keeps its size but changes its priorities - towards applicants who rate highly on income, age, English and full-time work, and towards skilled partners and employer-sponsored applicants.
• More highly paid workers through the Specialist Skills stream of the Skills in Demand visa (up to 5,000 more a year), and a new Skilled Project Visa (15,000 a year), tied to a defined project and period.
• Other measures: a revised temporary skilled priority list, a strike force to clear the backlog of skilled construction applications, and a doubling of the Talent and Innovation allocation to 7,000 places through a new AUKUS and Five Eyes visa. Home Affairs has set that category at 3,500 for 2026–27.
• Regional: the plan would replace “the regional permanent program” with Ministerial Directions prioritising regional employer-sponsored applications. It does not say what that would mean for visas in the current Regional category, such as the subclass 491.

Not every number goes down. The party’s own projection has temporary skilled employment visa holders rising, from 260,600 to 321,000.

Partners and families

The release says the plan makes no changes to family reunion visas, and skilled partners would be prioritised within the skilled program. One point to watch is the offshore rule below: an onshore partner application (subclass 820) is technically a temporary visa application, and the release does not say how the two commitments fit together.

Anyone moving between visas in Australia

• Second and later temporary visa applications would have to be made from outside Australia, except second and third year Working Holiday Makers. The party says this would all but eliminate bridging visas, and projects bridging and temporary protection holders falling from 414,700 to 20,000.
• Merits review would be removed for adverse character decisions, temporary visa refusals and offshore applicants. Today many of these decisions can be reviewed at the Administrative Review Tribunal.
• The Australian Values Statement would become a binding visa condition, with breaches grounds for failing the character test.
• Protection: onshore applicants would have to apply within 30 days, a Safe Country List would be introduced, and Temporary Protection Visas restored.

Working holiday makers

The Coalition would reverse the Government’s announced ballots and caps for second and third year Working Holiday visas, and instead raise visa fees, with an exemption for regional areas. It would also revise the regional definitions for extensions, and introduce a new Agriculture Visa from 2030.

What has not changed today

• The law. The 485 visa, onshore partner applications, review rights at the ART and current eligibility rules all operate exactly as they did before the announcement.
• The Government’s own changes are separate. Some are already in force, including the student visa changes from 2 October 2026 and skilled processing priorities from 19 September 2026. Others, such as the Working Holiday ballots, are announced only. Our guide to the September 2026 changes has the status of each.
• Timing. The Coalition’s figures start in 2028–29. It says many of the major changes could be made quickly using existing ministerial powers, including those to the 485 visa, student family members, offshore applications and the Skilled Project Visa. No transitional arrangements have been published.

Sensible steps now

• Check your eligibility under today’s rules, not under an announcement. Our points calculator is a quick first check for skilled visas.
• If your application is ready, there is no reason to hold it back. Rule changes generally apply from when they commence, but each change carries its own transitional provisions.
• If your plan depends on a 485, it is worth knowing your alternatives now - skilled, employer-sponsored or regional pathways - rather than after any change.
• If you expect to need another temporary visa in Australia, map out when you will apply and which visa you will hold at that time.
• Get advice on your own facts. Book a consultation and we will look at what is actually open to you under the law as it stands.

We will update this article if the policy changes or any part of it becomes law.

Sources

• Liberal Party of Australia, Liberals and Nationals’ Australia-first migration plan: Cut the numbers, raise the standards, 6 October 2026 - including the background tables on net overseas migration and temporary visa holders.
• Liberal Party of Australia, Our Plan for Less Migration and More Homes, last updated 6 October 2026.
• Department of Home Affairs, Permanent Migration Program planning levels (2026–27).
• Department of Home Affairs, Australian Government Migration Policy Changes, last updated 17 September 2026.
• Department of Home Affairs, About the refugee and humanitarian program.
• Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, state and territory population, March 2026, released 17 September 2026.
• Guardian Australia, Angus Taylor vows biggest cut to migration in Australia’s history, 6 October 2026 - for reactions to the announcement.

Image: Departure hall of Brisbane International Terminal by Kgbo, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.